Monday, 14 November 2016

Week 4 [14.11-20.11.2016] Is the world going to end now?

Is the world going to end now? 

2016 has been a year of improbable and even unthinkable political changes actually taking place. I’m not referring to our own backyard, that’s a whole different story, but with Brexit, President Trump and a possibility of Le Pen winning next French elections millions of people feel concerned or even go into full panic mode. Is there a reason to? Are those genuine threats or are we being carried away? Let’s give it a thought.
http://www.telesurtv.net/english/news/Europes-Far-Right-Emboldened-by-Trumps-Triumph-20161109-0007.html

Europe is falling apart!

Or at least that is what one might think having read first reactions to Britons deciding to leave the EU. Truth be told I was shocked myself. Plenty of people acknowledged the rise of cheap populism, but still wanted to believe reason would prevail. Well, it did not.  That brought on the first panic attack of centrist and liberal media suggesting the EU is about to fall apart. The truth is the EU is in a deep crisis. Before we even managed to properly recover from economic setback we were struck by migration crisis. Plenty of people consider EU unable to deal with the problems and Euroscepticism is on the rise. On that background Brexit might seem as a big step towards it’s decomposition. Is it really though? All those problems and Brexit itself have triggered not only anti-european movements. It has also strengthened parties in favor of stronger integration, ones that look what was the cause of crises and EU’s inability to deal with them. The cause to vast extent may lay In insufficient integration, lack of common policies such as e.g. the monetary one and ineffective decision making process. That suggests right wing which today claims to have the solution might’ve been the cause itself fighting against stronger integration. That view is shared by plenty of EU leaders and one of the strongest movements within the EU leaders wants to tighten the integration. The effort is being lead by Italy, Germany, France and the Netherlands with support of plenty other countries, so Brexit might as well turn out to be an impulse towards a stronger EU. Where our country with its current foreign policy will find itself within it… Well, that is something I don’t really like to think about.
http://castle2016.com/brexit/

Have we been nuked yet?

So it’s happened. Despite all the polls and all the experts the candidate often portrayed as xenophobic, incompetent, lacking respect for women and pretty much any minority has won the race for the White House. His controversial remarks have worried pretty much every foreign leader in the western world. Transactional approach towards alliances such as NATO, admiration for Putin and threats to break agreements already in place are a cause of thousands of headaches. Should they be though? Of course he is going to be much more of an unpredictable President than any other candidate would. Personally I’d cast my ballot for Lucipher himself rather than Trump. Luckily populism can only go so far. What may work in a campaign to get uneducated votes just doesn’t work when it comes to running the state. Trump has already withdrawn from some of his promises and the first names that come up as his future administration are well-known and respected Republicans. Also Congress does not seem to be willing to approve funding of such ridiculous proposals as the famous Trump wall. It seems that after all he is going to act like a typical politician and he just won’t do what he promised. Except in this case it’s actually something we should hope for.
https://deemention.wordpress.com/2013/07/14/on-a-post-caring-world/


  1. What do you think about Brexit?
  2. Do you think Trump will make a better president than Hilary would?
  3. Do you think those events will have big influence on Poland?

29 comments:

  1. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  2. 1. What do you think about Brexit?

    I think the British always wanted to differentiate from other EU members and finally they did it. I wish the referendum result was different but so called Brexit is a process, probably a very long process. Who knows to where it gonna lead us. I am afraid that more countries would vote against EU in the near future. Indeed, Brexit could cause a domino effect... For sure EU needs to change, but I hope it will survive and will be stronger in the end. Because Europeans need a strong community to successfully face global issues.

    2. Do you think Trump will make a better president than Hilary would?

    Well, I don't like him. However, if Hillary had won the election, nothing would have changed. Trump is completely different form her, so maybe he can find better solutions to some problems. Honestly, I doubt that but maybe I am the one who is wrong. I just hope that he will not lead the world to the point when it will be impossible to restore it ;)

    3. Do you think those events will have big influence on Poland?

    I think yes, it will. EU is weaker than ever, our government weaken it more rather than strengthen it. I am not claiming that we should blindly support EU or that EU should not change, but I am afraid that it will collapse completely... Moreover, our upcoming budget is very tight, there's hardly any buffer for unexpected situations outside Poland. Politicians seems to believe that Poland can be self-sufficient and outside turbulences don't affect us, which is not true at all...

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    1. You've made some really good points and I could not agree more with most of wjhat you said. I guess we just need to convince people from our closest surrounding to European values, do whatever we can and hope things don't go south 😊

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  3. What do you think about Brexit?
    I think that, Brexit it is begin of end UE. People in a lot of country see fact, that UE give him proverbial fish in form a lot of grant, but affect on sovereignty country. Fact, in Great Britain are a lot of Polish people and is a risk that this people would come back to our country, but in Britain Polish people work very hard and good, earn smaller than his britain collegue. Polish people also do things which british people dont want do.

    Do you think Trump will make a better president than Hilary would?
    If I would have choice, I would vote on Trump, because he is a multimillionaire and do not need public money, he will be govern USA by the hard hand.
    Do you think those events will have big influence on Poland?
    I think not, because every president of USA promised that VISA will be removed and everyone will come back with his promises. If Great Britain would come back with with UE do not change for Poland, because if Polish people would come back to country, who will be work? Muslims whose want only benefit? Only change for Poland is passport for departure.

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    1. I don't know if I can agree. I do think some decompostion processes have started, but the response is not the same across Europe as it is in e.g. Poland, or Hungary. Plenty of nations see the solution in tightrening the bonds instead of chep populism. After all for the "Old EU" members the EE doesn't really stand for grant money. It's rather values, safety and a great vision.

      Hilary doesbn't need public money neither. She might not be a billionaire, but she's really well-off anyway 😊 also do you think heavy-handed governance is better? I am also quite affraid his transactional buisiness-like approach when it comes to Poland I guess we're much more dependant than just visa system. It's allso safety system 😊 not really suit politics

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  4. What do you think about Brexit?
    It shows some trends which happen to be worlwide. It's interesting what will be the outcome of it.

    Do you think Trump will make a better president than Hilary would?
    Yes I think he will be better then his oponent. Hillary represented demoliberal elites which are now being moved away from ruling (Hungary, Poland, USA, Austria, France?)

    Do you think those events will have big influence on Poland?
    In some cases - global ones - definetly. In most of them - not so much, especially for majority of us living in Poland.

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    1. I agree with you. Brexit is a very powerful impulse for changes for foreign policy (not only in Europe). But I do not know whether it is positive changes.
      I do not have many knowledge about politics in USA, but I think that Hillary would be more balanced and conservative.

      By the way. Poland has a large contribution for Trump election. Lech Walesa think that he is political guru for Donald. (https://www.facebook.com/lechwalesa/photos/a.143636462349174.27216.126374514075369/1212487122130764/?type=3&theater)
      This is very funny. for me.


      I completly agree with Marek about small direct influence for our country. But maybe Lech Walesa will be a great lobbyist and Polad will be more significant in foreign policy. ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)

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    2. That's an interesting view. I do agree that liberal democrats were outvoted in some countries by the populist right. I'm just not suree it's good. After all these are representatives of the same views (often same parties) that built our prosperity and safety after times of right wing in power. If the answer is too simple it does not always mean it's better 😊

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    3. Thanks for the comment! Kamil, I'm just curious what do you mean Hilary would be more conservative? 😊 after all she was running as a liberal against a conservative 😊

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  5. What do you think about Brexit?

    For now, we only know a few facts about what happens when Britain really leave the EU, but we can not be sure about this. Most likely the most to lose on the UK because they will not have financial support from the EU and will be excluded from the Major Decisions. Transport of products to the European Union will be more difficult because it will come from the EU zone.
    Brexit also badly affected the stupid mentality of the British people. They Began to be racists for other countries, most Polish people living in Britain.


    Do you think Trump will make a better president than Hilary would?

    Donald Trump is a controversial person, but I think that Americans should give him a chance, because it is able to make a difference in America. I believe that he is able to defeat ISIS. In my opinion, if Hillary was become a president, she would't have changed in America. Hillary is "an extension" of government Barack Obama.


    Do you think those events will have big influence on Poland?

    I dont think so, because Donald Trump is not interested in such a small and poor country as Poland. Donalt certainly not abolish visas for Poles because he do not want immigrants to the United States.

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    1. I agreee when it comes to conequences for the UK. Don't you think it would be good to "extend" Obama's administration though? 😊 Oh and I was more worried when it comes to our safety system rahther than the visa issue 😊

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  6. 1. What do you think about Brexit?

    Brexit will affect EU's economy with a sad effect. In terms of that british economy's strength is second in whole Europe european economy become much weaker. Polish people living in the Great Britain could feel uncertainty of that situation and also animosity from british people. After all I think that this event will cause bigger damage in Great Britain than European Union.

    2. Do you think Trump will make a better president than Hilary would?

    I'm curious which Donald Trump's promises he is going to achieve but definitely not an enthusiast of him. He seems to be an unpredictable person ready to provide plenty of changes, but look at our example. Polish people also wanted changes in our country, so now it looks how it is. I would prefer Hilary.

    3. Do you think those events will have big influence on Poland?

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  7. 3. Do you think those events will have big influence on Poland?

    It could be a huge change for many polish peoples living illegaly in the United States for many years. Trump announced that after becoming presidet of US he will deport all illigal imigrants.

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    1. These are some statements I cannot dissagree with. Let's just hope Trump will act like a stereotypical politican this time and he won't fulfill most of hie promises 😊

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  8. 1. What do you think about Brexit?
    As I already mentioned in comment to other presentation: http://konwersatorium3.blogspot.com/2016/10/week-2-1710-23102016-what-will-be.html
    "In my opinion British people have a high opinion about themself. They still are thinking about "Great Britain" - which has a lot of colonies etc. But to be honest, nowadays it's nothing special. It's only one of many countries, but just with a nice history. EU shouldn't treat UK in special way after their leaving.
    If UK totally close their borders for immigrants (as we can hear - this is the main purpose of many citizens) then it would be a bit funny for me, when they realize that part of these NOBLE CITIZENS of THAT GREAT BRITAIN need to go to work in shops or clean up streets, toilets etc. as a substitute for Poles and other minor (less noble) nations.

    But from the other side - I do not blame them totally. EU is like a cabaret now. Accepting refugees, a willingness to accept Turkey into the Union? Come on... Until a few years, several such dumb ideas and the whole idea of union will fall apart."

    And I cannot add nothing, due to lack of new informations since posting my above comment. There was maybe one thing, I've heard that they are wondering about the possibility of rejection/cannceling brexit by UK goverment. They may try to leave yourself some option just in case.


    2. Do you think Trump will make a better president than Hilary would?
    USA citizens have got two bad options in election. But I think, that they choosed this one, which is a bit less bad. Trump is quite good businessman, he knows how to manage big companies. He's a "breath of fresh air" in politics, without "good old friends" which you have to bet stools. He may have ambition, to really do something great and worthy to remember - as his slogan: "Make America Great Again".
    And Hilary... I would rather say that she just want to get more money and try to achieve private benefits, hide some dirts and only then take care of the state.


    3. Do you think those events will have big influence on Poland?
    Maybe not "big" but "pretty big" :) Already PLN lost value, many polish citizens are persecuted in UK and decided to come back to home. But it's too fast to talk about that. We must wait and observe what will happen in next few months.

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    1. I guess you're right when it comes to British mentality (does not refere to all of the Britons ofc 😊 ) when it comes to reffugees it was a rough issue adressed a bit do idealitically, but I wouldn't call it dumb 😊 Refereing to Turkey those negotiations have been going on for ages and I don't think any of the parties really wants them to end up with Turkey joining the EU anytime soon. It's ajust a pretty smart way of strongarming one another with keeping Turkey within the western influence at the same time 😊

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  9. What do you think about Brexit?
    I think its not decided yet about brexit, I've read somewhere that its against the constitution to make that kind of decision based on referendum. Also UK passed a tottal invigilation law so its a pretty bad place to be living in.

    Do you think Trump will make a better president than Hilary would?
    Of course he will, Hilary was all about keeping things how they were, plus that whole thing with hilary foundation is really sketchy. We will see how Trump turns out, but i think its gonna be all okay.
    Do you think those events will have big influence on Poland?
    Yeah, of course, Poland is a buffor zone between east and west and usa and russia both wanna influence it as much as they can.

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    1. It's onlu unconstitutional for the goverment to trigger the article 50 withouth the previous approval of the Parliament 😊 I agree Hillary definitelly is not cristal clear but some of Trump's buisnesses and taxes are at least just as sketchy, don't you think? 😊

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  10. 1 What do you think about Brexit?

    I think that Brexit will have bad effects on EU economy as well as on Britain economy. Many people from Poland and many other countries leave their countries to Britain for work purposes. I think that EU has positive influence on going to other countries without any problems and after Brexit it will change.

    2 Do you think Trump will make a better president than Hilary would?

    I don’t know if Trump will be better president than Hilary would. I think that at the beginning we have to observe the situation in America. Trump is unpredictable and in a few months we will see if that was a good choice.

    3 Do you think those events will have big influence on Poland?

    I think that this events can have positive influence on Poland. For some time we will see. Maybe president Trump will even abolish resident visas for Poland.

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    1. That's a very sensible view. Truth be told trying to predict the future in politics when it comes to evenst such as Trump's vicotry is to a vast extent fortunetelling 😊

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  11. 1. What do you think about Brexit?

    I think the Great Britain long time ago wanted to differentiate from other EU members and fact about Brexit is not something special for me.

    2 Do you think Trump will make a better president than Hilary would?

    I am not sure if Trump will be better president than Hilary Clinton. I am not so interested in the policy so I cannot say much more about it.

    3 Do you think those events will have big influence on Poland?

    I think not. In my opinion Donald Trump will be interested in bigger countries than Poland. What is more I think that he will not abolish visas for Poles.

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    1. Thanks for the comment! I am affraid that visas will remain as well

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  12. What do you think about Brexit?
    Brexit is sum up of the years multicultural political and corectness for everybody who arrived to Islands.
    I think, the British people want get back their famous independent and colonialism splendor.
    When the Polish people started come to GB, they were at the same position like Ukrainian in Poland.
    But we can (compare to British)accept the fact, this kind of work which we don't do that Ukrainian
    congruent for conditions.

    Do you think Trump will make a better president than Hilary would?
    I don't want to compare able to choice of Trump or Hilary because, as time has shown thet both are not exactly the best candidate.
    I would like to give a chance for Trump because It was choose democratical nation.

    Do you think those events will have big influence on Poland?
    If Trump fulfills election promises for Polish people about abolish resident visa and ensure protection before the Russia aggression in Europe, He will gain favor Polish support.

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  13. 1.What do you think about Brexit?
    Brexit was a cold shower for all of the UE members, but it was necessary to prove that whole Europe is in deep crisis and there is no possibility to transform all of the UE countries to one big family with one culture. People don't want that kind of unity.

    2.Do you think Trump will make a better president than Hilary would?

    I personally would vote for Trump. He is a lot better choice than Clinton and for Poland it's an opportunity to make our country great again, we will have far more better alliance with Trump than with Clinton. He was right about NATO, we cannot simply give up on our army, and pray that USA will rescue whole Europe from Russia, because it is very naive thinking.

    3.Do you think those events will have big influence on Poland?

    Those events will have an enormous influence on the whole world including Poland, but I think that this is just the beginning of this transformation in geopolitics and we should expect more surprises. I am optimistic of the future of our country, despite of some weird behaviors of our government recently (because I do not agree with all of their decisions), they're DOING their job, and for me they're far better than previous government.

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  14. 1. I agree with some of the comments above. First of all GB has always wanted to be treated as an unusual member of EU. Being solid contributor to EU budget, giving an economical shelter for refugees coming for whole Europe – they felt a little bit more important. Current position of GB is effect of last decades of the foreign policy and getting back to desired state also requires years and years of work. Brexit itself will not change anything. It’s a trigger for long, time consuming process of negotiation on conditions of leaving EU. However it’s not milestone itself.

    2. Choosing Trump is tangible effect of cheap populism. Personally I believe that neither of them was a good candidate. If I were about to make decision it would be ‘lesser evil’ one. I’d vote for Hillary, not being happy about this decision at the same time. Good thing is that Trump is not making all of decision on his own. He’s not stupid. He know that he cannot make all of his election promises come true. I believe he’s going to remain under influence of other people and public institutions not being that controversial as he used to be during his run for presidency.

    3. I’m not that sure. Step by step Poland is gaining a bigger chunk of European political scene. We’re treated in more serious way than 10 years ago. Still – I believe that as a country we’re neutral. We’re younger, less developed brother of other western countries. Therefore no matter what decisions will be made behind the ocean they are not going to have direct impact on Poland. Moreover I don’t project any changes about visas to the USA.

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  15. • What do you think about Brexit?

    The European Union needs a renewal. .I hope that "Brexit" will be just a symbolic act of disapproval of British community with EU politic. It should be a lesson for EU authorities. It is the first time in EU history when member of EU decided to get out of EU.

    • Do you think Trump will make a better president than Hilary would?

    What kind of president he will be we will see. This what he said in the election campaign is one thing, and these how he will rule is other thing. He is an owner of a huge company, he has management experience. He leads compant for years, earned billions dollars, he knows a lot about the US economy and the tax system. For the first look Trump is a person with a lot disadvantages. If he did such a great success as a businessman maybe he can do the same as a president of USA. However he should work on his behaviour, especially he should learn how to treat other people with respect.

    • Do you think those events will have big influence on Poland?

    Brexit - I think that no, but Polish government should be aware that UE stability was violated. EU is made by countries which can step out of this agreement as UK did.

    Trump - I hope that he will made one of his promise which is important for me and Polish visas will be abolished, beacues Poland has heared that thing since the mid-90s of the last century. I believe that Trump will change this things.

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  16. 1. If someone want to leave European Union – let its do it. British people voted about it in the referendum. Whether it will affect in Poland? Time will tell. It seems to me that we have bigger problems at home. The current government introduces a lot of changes. Regardless for whom we voted. We should closely follow all their changes. Who knows, maybe one day they change the system in Poland ;)
    2. I haven’t read the election program of both candicates. I don’t have the right to vote :) If Trump withdrew some of their promises – he can do it. On the other hand Hillary looked like that she wanted to win for her husband. For USA we are one of the allies. We also are not very significant country in the world arena. If the elections would change something in out country it will not be a big change.
    3. I've answered above :)

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  17. 1. I don't like politics at all. Today every news are about it. They want to leave EU - let it happen. If they will pay respect to people who live in their country (for example Poles), i'm not bother it.
    2. I don't like speculations. I think this is analitics work, so let them do their job. Trump hasn't got point of view similar to me, so I haven't crossed my fingers for him.
    3. Of course they do, but - as i've mentioned - I don't like speculations...

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  18. I think Brexit is an unfortunate event that casts a shadow on European integration. Hopefully the EU will prevail with our without the UK.

    I don't believe anyone can predict what kinds of a president will Donald Trump be. He said multiple things that he already dismissed as campaign talk, so it's anyone's guess what does he really believe in and what he had said just to win the election.

    To some extent it will affect Poland due to our economy's ties to the global markets. Hopefully the NATO will remain solid and we will not have to start worrying about our security.

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