You have
probably already heard that electric cars and autonomous driving are the future
of automotive industry. Today I would like to show you that this future is
actually already here. It all started with Tesla and the original “Master
Plan”. Elon Musk invested in this startup because he believed that electric
cars are the only sustainable solution to transport and the master plan for the
company success was simple:
- Build sports car
- Use that money to build an affordable car
- Use that money to build an even more affordable car
- While doing above, also provide zero emission electric power generation options [1]
And that is
what Tesla did. It started with a Roadster – fast and very expensive car, then
Model S, Model X and finally Model 3 – an affordable car for many people. Just
a few weeks ago Tesla finally was able to dump production cost so much so it
could offer Model 3 for 35,000 USD.
And how can this be a revolution you may ask.
It’s just one company producing a fraction of a percent of cars sold all over
the world. It’s true but we need to notice that every year Tesla sales increase
– in 2018 Tesla delivered over 245,000 cars which is 138% of 2017 Tesla’s
sales.
If you are
still not convinced that EV’s (Electric Vehicles) will be driving on our roads in
just a few years let’s look at Geneva Motor Show 2019 [7 MARCH 2019 – 17 MARCH 2019].
Audi showed 3 new electric cars coming to the market this and next year along
with 4 new plug-in hybrids (vehicles with both engines - internal combustion
and the electric one - and with a small battery which can be recharged by
plugging it into an external source of power). Skoda showed a model Vision Vi
coming to production in 2020, Seat showed a model El-born also coming to
production in 2020. BMW showed 4 plug-in hybrids, Jeep showed 2 plug-in
hybrids. Fiat, Kia, Mercedes, Honda, Peugeot, Volvo – everyone showed some EV’s
coming to the market soon. And that’s just a one motor show, which does not
present everything.
The last important puzzle that shows a complete picture of automotive revolution is money.
Volkswagen is investing 91 billion USD in electric cars and e-mobility, Mercedes 42 billion USD. Every automaker is making huge investments. The most of money is going into China as as the batteries are being produced there. Here is a full report: https://graphics.reuters.com/AUTOS-INVESTMENT-ELECTRIC/010081ZB3HD/index.html.
The last important puzzle that shows a complete picture of automotive revolution is money.
Volkswagen is investing 91 billion USD in electric cars and e-mobility, Mercedes 42 billion USD. Every automaker is making huge investments. The most of money is going into China as as the batteries are being produced there. Here is a full report: https://graphics.reuters.com/AUTOS-INVESTMENT-ELECTRIC/010081ZB3HD/index.html.
With such
an investment being made there is nothing that can prevent EV’s from hitting
the market on a global scale.
Questions:
- Do you agree that EV’s will replace gas cars in near future? And if so how fast will it happen? And if not – why do you think that?
- Do you think that EV’s replacing gas cars is a good trend?
- Electric cars accelerate much faster than gas cars. 5-7 seconds to 100 km/h is nothing special for them. The fastest ones can do it in 1.9s. Do you think that it is good that everyone in the future will have such fast cars? E.g. young drivers or very old ones?
Sources:
- https://www.tesla.com/blog/secret-tesla-motors-master-plan-just-between-you-and-me
- https://youtu.be/Q4VGQPk2Dl8?t=84
- https://electrek.co/2019/02/21/tesla-top-priority-automakers-bmw-dealer-model-3-affecting-sales/
- https://graphics.reuters.com/AUTOS-INVESTMENT-ELECTRIC/010081ZB3HD/index.html
- https://electrek.co/2019/01/02/tesla-record-deliveries-production-q4/
Probably not everyone in the future will have such car or it will have taken a lot of years before EV’s totally replace traditional cars (especially in Poland). I predict that in more than 50 years it won’t happen. So I am not afraid that young and old will have access to very fast cars. Otherwise the problem is not in age but in mind of people. There are young drivers, who don’t use whole powers of car and experienced, who exaggerate. I knew an over 40 years guy, who proudly said that he likes fast driving. Fast meant over 150 km/h in the middle of Warsaw.
ReplyDeleteAfter reading your presentation I started to think why to produce and buy electric car instead of traditional? How idea came up? I heard about ecological reasons, but are they really so ecologic?
It's true that it's all about a driver and how will he use a car. I just think that many people don't drive fast because they don't have fast enough cars and they don't want break the engine and they don't want to use a lot of gas. In EV's that problems pretty much don't exist.
DeleteEv's are just a better technology. Traditional engines lose over 60% of energy they produce on heat, friction ect. Electric engines can utilize almost 100% of supplied energy and change it into force for rotating wheels. Electric engines are also much smaller, with way less parts. They dont need speed box, they event don't need oil change. Thay are also environmentally friendly. Right now EV can pay it's carbon debt in 2-3 year after producion and after we develop better batteries it will take even less time.
Yes, I am sure that electric cars will be the majority on the roads. However I think that some small batch of traditional cars will still be used but more for the feeling of how it drives and sounds. As time goes electric cars are becoming more and more affordable to customers and that makes for more sales.
ReplyDeleteThe problem with having faster cars it a big deal. I mean everyone can make mistake but that is when some kind of AI should step in and try to save someone's life in order to prevent catastrophy.
And I think personally that having electric cars sounds cooler and more modern, like we are living in some futuristic future :-)
Thankfully we are more and more advanced in autonomus cars so sooner or later we will eliminate human errors :)
DeleteThat sounds like a Black Mirror episode ;)
DeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteDo you agree that EV’s will replace gas cars in near future? And if so how fast will it happen? And if not – why do you think that?
ReplyDeleteIt's important how do you define "near" future. I think that if full replacement ever happend it will take at least several decades. Imagine that by tomorrow all cars would be magicly replaced with EV one's. We're not able to produce enough power to charge them. Also there's huge infrastructural problem to resolve- you have to replace all gas stations with chargers. Then, where we would recycle used batteries? There's still lots of common problems and of course by that time I hope we'll manage with them.
Do you think that EV’s replacing gas cars is a good trend?
It's hard to say if it's good. If you look from close perspective- going 1 km with EV car is much better for environment than 1 km with V8 Camaro, but if you took few steps back it might appear that producing, transporting and then recycling batteries might be much worse. It's not the fact, I'm just assuming that it might happened. I know for sure that Tesla build their own factoryies just to avoid importing batteries from Asian supplaiers but I'm not sure if rest of the companies will go that way. At the end, air polution of nowdays internal combustion engine cars ain't that bad so for now I'll look at it as a developing new technologies which is in most cases great.
Electric cars accelerate much faster than gas cars. 5-7 seconds to 100 km/h is nothing special for them. The fastest ones can do it in 1.9s. Do you think that it is good that everyone in the future will have such fast cars? E.g. young drivers or very old ones?
Even "regular" cars are extremly fast these days ( you won't feel the difference of 1s from 3 to 2 from 0-100) and lots of them have electronic restriction of speed so I think that the same think will probably happened with the EV cars. Till the 2020 all of Volvo's cars will be blocked to 180 km/h so I'm almost sure that at some point it'll affects most of the brands.
If we would replace all the cars with electric ones righ now of course the electric grid will just crash. We need a lot of investments in infrastrucure as well.
DeleteI heard that in the future electic grid will consist of many small electric power plants - eg. photovoltaincs combined with huger battery systems that will store generated energy.
Right now EV's can pay it's production carbon debt in just 2-3 years if energy that they use is generated from green sources in comparison to traditional cars that start with smaller carbon debt but they constantly increase it's total emisions beacuse they use gas.
Pretty interesting topic has been touched here. I am looking forward to see much, much more electronic vehicles driving our Polish streets. For sure this is a future, perspective trend which will overlay the current, non-friendly for environment. In many, more economically developed countries we can see this future already progressing. I estimate that we may see a full replacement in perhaps 10-15 years.
ReplyDeleteIt doesn't really bother me that these cars have such acceleration. People that can afford such option at the moment are rather reasonable enough. In the future if this kind of car will be an option for a typical Kowalski, these cars should be already equiped with intelligent
systems that will prevent many possible accident scenarios, especially when connected to the IoT.
It's true. Even now safety systems can detect obstacles and take control of the car to prevent accident and these systems will be only much more advanced.
DeleteTopic is very interesting and on top for some time. In my opinion it's great that electric vehicles are getting more and more popular. Not only we're saving enviroment but with it comes a lot of improvements for everyone. The biggest advantage is for people living in huge cities hearing all the time car's noises. While driving EV You almost can't hear that engine has been started. I hope that in few years for now EV gonna take the market. When living in capital of Poland I see a lot of new EV loading stations being build what proves that EV is big deal.
ReplyDeleteHow about younger drivers? Since we live in 21st century and we have electrict cars, implementing speed and acceleration's limitations shouldn't be such a problem.
I heard that there will be regulations that force car manufacturers to add spekers imitating car engine because of pedestrians.
DeleteI guess even with that spekers it will be much more quiet and of course the air will be less polluted in the city.
I hope it will happen quickly. Fuel cars are unfriendly to the environment, so I would like people to switch to electric cars. At the moment, we also have fast cars, and people fall into accidents anyway. I think it will not make a difference.
ReplyDeleteOh I definitely agree that EV's will replace gas cars at some point. Only classic cars enthusiasts will keep using them. I hope it will happen as soon as possible, so that we will reduce the emission, but I'm afraid it will take a while in poorer countries where used cars are majority of sales.
ReplyDeleteSpeaking of fast electric cars, I'm not that worried about it, there are at least couple of solutions that might in the future be implemented. Since Tesla is already a smart car, its a matter of time until it starts recognising its driver, then it can automatically block its maximum speed. On the other hand since we are going into direction of automation, at near future I believe we will stop driving our cars, and it will safely drive us to our destination by itself ;) Actually self driving is already implemented by Tesla and fully functional, from what I read there are only law related issues to have it fully operational.
Even when car manufacturers will start to sell only EV's there will be a lot of used traditional cars that will drive for next 10-20 years. Sad but true.
DeleteI hope that competition on market will push car manufacturers to accelerate with production of ev's and briging them to masses as soon as possible.
Maybe not in the nearest future, but I think that one day EV's will replace gas cars as a more ecological substitute. But to make it happen it is necessary to make electricity more easy and cheaper to produce. Replacing gas cars is a good trend, because we should look for ways to give up on non-renewable energy sources wherever possible. Electricity itself and vehicles are a very good start. I don't think that faster cars are a problem. The problem is irresponsible drivers. I think that if the risk of causing an accident is greater in EV then requirements for a driving license should be increased.
ReplyDeleteIf only our government would like to invest in green energy. Solar panels can easily produce enough energy and they are not that expensive the only problem is storing that energy for later use and there government should act.
DeleteI hear a lot of talk everywhere about Electric Vehicles. I think it definitely deserves to be considered a revolution. As Elon Musk said in his speech, sustainable energy is extremely important for all of us because we cannot devastate our environment indefinitely. I keep my fingers crossed for EVs to replace gas cars. It’s hard to predict when it happens but I wouldn’t be surprised if in a dozen of years number of EVs exceeds 50% of all cars. Personally, I find this trend really promising and I think it can bring benefits to the environment and in consequence to all the people. The car speed isn’t dangerous per se. The most important factor is responsibility of the driver. If driver is irresponsible, e.g. drives after alcohol consumption, he can cause an accident even in “slow” car.
ReplyDeleteLet's hope it will happen sooner than later. I heard recently that Volkswagen is making some huge steps into electrification - eg. leading european battery alliance.
DeleteI think it will be very soon. As far as I know the polish government plans to make Poland a leader in electric vehicles. There are more and more projects of electric cars, technology develops rapidly, so everything points to that we will use such transport quite soon.
ReplyDeleteOf course replacing gas cars is a good thing. Gas is really expensive and there is less and less of oil deposis in the ground so people have to get some replacement for it. What's more, electrical energy can be obtained in a harmless way, e.g. from the Sun.
I think modern cars can have some purposeful constraints which will protect from speed abusements. What's more, in a future cars probably will be driven by computers not by humans.
Oh! I havent heard that polish government is trying to do that. Do you know what they are planning to do and when?
DeleteI believe there's still a long way to go to replace traditional cars completely but we're definitely on a right track. I think we need more than ten years to rely on electric cars entirely, because besides developing good and cheap engines, we also need to find more economical and eco-friendly sources of energy.
ReplyDeleteI'm not an expert on that matter but for me it depends if EV is really as eco as car companies want us to believe. Current technology is not as good as we'd like it to be, so for now should probably stick to good old gas cars.
Acceleration is not the same as speed so I don't think it actually matters. As for the speed, I believe it's not something we should be concerned about. I'm pretty sure faster cars will be also more expensive, so the market will keep our street safe.
You have a point - cheaper EV's will probably not have such rapid acceleration but I am pretty sure that before people will get used to fast acceleration of EV's there will be dozens of accidents caused by that.
Delete1. It is possible but I don't think it will happen quickly. It seems to me, society can't afford such a solution because they can't afford it.
ReplyDelete2. If it really will help ecology and the planet, then yes.
3. Everyone has their own mind and conscience. There will always be someone who will be rash.
ReplyDeleteIt goes without saying that electic cars are environment friendly.As per knowledge, these days Skandinavian countries are pioneers in the field of electric cars. It comes as no surprise to me as the people in those countries are very environmental aware.
Even so, this kind of cars is still not affordable for the majority of citizens and it will take years to fully switch from
“classical” cars to those electric. Building proper infrastacture (with sufficient number of charge stations) is another issue. Unfortunateluy in Poland, despite some visions and promises of our prime minister, there is a reverse trend – huge number of old cars are being imported from western Europe – it is very bad trend given our current problems with poor air quality.I have really little knowledge of electric cars, but they appear pretty impractical for me without the proper infrastructure (as mentioned above). For short distances, this kind of vehicle may be indeed very convenient, but what about travelling to other, remote locations (for instance from Warsaw to Crocow). How such a travel with electric car would look like? Shall I spend an additional day in Crocow just for my car recharging? As for the possible high speed of such cars, the number of accidents indeed depends on the driver not car.
Tesla model 3 version long range has a range of 500 km and it can recharge almost 300 km of range in just 15 minutes on a proper charger so the range and charging times are no longer an isue in my opinion. I'm sure it will get even batter in upcoming years and that electric cars will parallel gas cars in terms of range and recharging times. The only problem in poland is fast charging infrastructure but it is growing too.
DeleteI think it's good that electric cars will replace diesel. Global warming is increasing. Moving away from the original car will help protect the environment. I think it will happen quickly. Many cars already have an electric-assisted engine. It's a matter of time until they replace fully electric ones.
ReplyDeleteI think that fast cars are a good step, and whether that they will belong to old people or young people is irrelevant. In the future, no one will drive the car alone. All cars will be autonomous, making them safer.
Really interesting topic, appreciate detailed information provided, with statistics and numbers. In fact, Elon Musk is trying to build something more than just expensive EV available only for limited group of wealthy people but something that would be used by majority. To completely replace gas cars, I guess it could take several dozen of years, because we don't know what kind of problems might occur when 3/4 of our society will switch to EV's. Generally it's a proper trend in my opinion, but still I'm not convinced to fully autonomous driving, as we don't know for example what type of driver we could meet on the road and how EV's would behave. Faster cars in the future might change our traffic law, I guess that except speed increase, we would have driving assistance on much higher level than now, so it shouldn't be a problem for young or older drivers.
ReplyDeleteP.S. As Elon Musk might finally leave the company, it would look very similar to Tony Stark history (Iron Man) :P
Gas cars will certainly be replaced by electric cars. When? It depends on the region and the wealth of society. However, I believe that electric cars will be a frequent choice within a decade in most regions of our world.
ReplyDeleteEvery trend has positive and negative effects. Fuel in the form of gas will end one day and electricity? Rather not, especially since there are already many power plants where electricity is produced from renewable energy sources such as wind or water.
Electric cars will probably be even faster in the future. Should everyone have such a car? This is quite a difficult question and there is no unambiguous answer. If people use them sensibly and without creating a risk, then of course. Unfortunately, it is known that it is not always so colourful. Such cars will be available, it is unavoidable. And safety will be in the hands of the driver.
And how will you drive such a car?
An interesting fact is Tesla closes their onsite car dealerships and moves it to online to bring announced price of 35k USD for Model 3. I think we observe a revolution, it is a matter of time when EV hit the market on a global scale. In fact 35k USD is not cheap - for this money you can buy BMW 230i Coupe, which I would rather prefere in such comparision. I will miss gasoline cars and I think that in 20 years it may be hard to buy a new one, as they'll be no longer produced. Now also anyone can have a very fast car, but price is going to increase with performance. I don't believe that in my life I'll be watching reality, where most of us have sports cars. It's not going to happen, people will previousely prefere to pay for something else, for eg practicality and safety.
ReplyDeleteI do agree that EV's will replace gas cars in near future. I think that it is a matter of 2 or 3 decades. I think like that bacause resources of gas is running low. Then solar energy is more and more efficient and cheap. Another advantage of EV's is that you don't have to fill up car on gas station. EV's batteries can be charing while you are at work or home.
ReplyDeleteReplacing gas cars is good way to fix earths climate. Also electric cars don't need whole infrastructure to fill them so there is less efford needed to maintain them.
Better acceleration of electric cars is fun fact about them. Huge velocity is great danger. Because EV's are equipped with auto-pilot and anti-collision sensors, they are safer than never.
I agree that EV’s will replace gas cars in near future. That can be caused by graphene. The problem with electric cars is the capacity of battery. Moreover we need to waste time for waiting to charge up. But in this year SAMSUNG company has annouced smartphones with charge time up to 15 minutes. And that’s because of using graphene as a material for batteries. That technology will be used soon in EV and improve pleasure of using electricity as a fuel. In my opinion we need to wait 50 years to fully get rid of gas cars but I wouldn’t call that as a near future.
ReplyDeleteI think that EV’s replacing gas cars is a good trend because noise is one of the biggest problems in towns. And it only gets worse when you move to a huge city. The second thing maybe even more important is that our air is heavily polluted by cars. And we even don’t realize how unhealthy is that.
In my opinion EV’s in the future will have some sort of software to slow them down a little bit. Cause having too much power can be problematic for inexperienced drivers. But on the other hand EV’s can reduce car traffic which is causes lots of economical loss for companies.
Yes, electric cars will replace combustion cars within a few dozen years. The factors from which it primarily depends are the cost of electric cars and infrastructure. Combustion cars will be owned by poorer people and enthusiasts who love real motorization.
ReplyDeleteIt is difficult to determine if this is a good trend. Electric lobby tells us that electric cars are the only alternative. At the same time, they pass over the subject of the production and utilization of electric batteries which is very costly and harmful to the environment. Modern combustion engines are ecological and economical, and the whole criticism that hits them is caused by pro-electric trends.
As soon as electric cars have become more popular, such performance will probably become part of the additional equipment, which will only be a matter of unlocking the corresponding function in the software. If such performance becomes a problem, some committee in Brussels, will immediately provide the appropriate regulations that will slow down the cars and entirely divest any driving pleasure.
Sure, electric cars will replace other ones in maybe not few but twenty or more years. The main problem (in Poland) is too less charge places and of course price of this cars.
ReplyDeleteElectric cars don't produce air pollution, so in my opinion they should become more popular and more people should be able to afford one.
This is amazing that we can get whole power from the start, not like in classic cars. Of course, for young or old drivers there should be some acceleration limit or extra courses to deal with it.
I know that someday I will buy Tesla ;)