In nowadays when machine learning has become more popular, most of us already heard about driverless-cars. Tesla provides that kind of functionality in their models, google is testing theirs, uber’s already killed one pedestrian and there’s a few other car manufactures that are implementing it into their products.
Picture 1: Google self-driving car
(https://static01.nyt.com/images/2012/10/28/automobiles/28JPSELF/28JPSELF-jumbo.jpg)
History of self-driving cars is a bit longer, because the first one was developed in 1977, it could reach speed of 30 kilometers per hour. It was using two cameras that were interpreting white street markers, the same idea is used in newer cars also.
The first question that we should ask is why do we need this kind of cars? The First reason is that we could use it for really long paths, instead of hiring a driver that will drive a few days from one point to another, lets make a computer do it without the need to sleep, eat or use toilet. It should let us save a few hours, which can lead to fresher food and lowering the cost of transportation. The second one and a lot more important is an increase in people’s safety. According to the World Health Organization in 2013, more than a billion people died in car accidents that year all over the world. Last year in Poland almost 3 thousand people died in car accidents and almost 45 thousand were injured. Those numbers are really big and by using driver-less cars we could lower it by 90%, as computers are always focused on their tasks, it doesn’t feel tired and has a lot faster reaction time than humans do. In our country it could also help getting rid of drunk drivers.
Picture 2: Percentage of traffic fatalities
(https://3h308wkqnxzfmr3r2xse3b16-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/Screen-Shot-2016-05-26-at-4.58.05-PM.png)
At the begging when we will have both driver-less cars and normal cars, we will still have some of accidents mostly because of human errors, but when all cars will be driven by computers, accidents that involve both cars should happen only because of mechanical errors like broken brakes, a tire being blown etc. Still, those situations could take place and in case of that we should be prepared. Here we have to think about the ethics of a driverless-car. Imagine a situation that you are in an autonomous car as a passenger, your brakes are not working and the computer has to decide: run
through pedestrians and kill 3 people or hit the wall that will lead to killing the driver and a passenger. In most cases you will answer that the computer should always choose less harm, but would you buy a car with knowledge that it will kill you when needed? More about that problem could be watched in this TEDx video:
If you have some spare time, please use the moral machine mentioned in this video that you can find here:
http://moralmachine.mit.edu/
Would you buy a driverless car for yourself?
What should the computer prioritize when making decisions?
Do you think that common use of autonomous cars will kill some of the job positions like a taxi driver or lorry drivers?
Who should we blame when a car crashes because of some bug in a code? A programmer, the
company that sold the product or maybe let clients know what is the risk of that and don’t let them
blame anyone?
Sources:
Picture 1: https://static01.nyt.com/images/2012/10/28/automobiles/28JPSELF/28JPSELF-jumbo.jpg
Picture 2: https://3h308wkqnxzfmr3r2xse3b16-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wpcontent/
uploads/2016/05/Screen-Shot-2016-05-26-at-4.58.05-PM.png
Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tb-WdVA4_bo
WHO statistic: http://www.who.int/gho/road_safety/mortality/traffic_deaths_number/en/
Polish police statistics: http://statystyka.policja.pl/st/ruch-drogowy/76562,Wypadki-drogoweraporty-
roczne.html
Time of autonomous cars has not yet come. Currently I think of them as a futuristic novel instead of functioning alternative to cars we have today, thus I wouldn't buy an autonomous car even if I have had money to do so.
ReplyDeleteNevertheless if the invention will be brought to the state of reliability it's very likely to reduce demand for drivers by great deal.
When it comes to the decision making of the car I think there will be a need for standardizing procedures of its algorithms by world wide regulations and manufactures who don't follow those should be held responsible for not complying to procedures.
Testing of self-driving cars is going forward in the US, some of the states even allowed to test them without safety human driver, so I would see it coming to other countries sooner than later. I completly agree that algorithms should be the same worldwide and companies should be penalized for implementing others, but a lot harder question is how those algorithms should work, what to take into consideration when making decision?
DeleteVery interesting topic and many difficult questions. Now I think that I wouldn’t buy a driverless car, because I am used to be responsible for me and don’t like to give others power. I like to have influence on what will happen. I also don’t believe in safety use of autonomous cars. My phone slowed down recently after updating it and now many actions take more than a second, the same may happen with the car and instead of making decision in split second it will react after longer time. Maybe if those cars are more common I will just accustom to thought that there is no driver in a car, especially when buses or trains would be that kind. Answering the second question I will tell the same as most of people say (according to video): car should choose less harm except situation, when I am in it, my car has to protect me. That is my first thought while listening video and I couldn’t give another answer, protecting oneself is something biological, so any common consensus or any law, which force us to protect others not ourselves just breaks the basic right to live. And if the car accident will happen because of bug? First you should prove that it was a bug, than find somebody who is responsible for it. In companies there is no one guilty person. The whole system is responsible for mistakes because it allows accidents to happen. Even if manufacturer proves us that his product is reliable and will never break down will we believe in it? Risk is always on user side. No redress helps you if you are dead.
ReplyDeleteWill autonomous cars will affect some professions? For sure! And not only drivers but also people who teach them, doctors and psychologist who examine them every five years, people who conduct courses (drivers have to take a course every five years) and owners of lorries, who wouldn’t have to pay people. But it has been happening from 18th century when Industrial Revolution took place. Machines have been replacing people for over 200 years, so it isn’t a new process. Law changes every day and we even don’t know that today some group of people lose and the other win. Big changes are made from day to day.
Thank you for your presentation, I spent good time reading it and watching video.
I wouldn't be scared much of system crashes as we are now using computers in much more difficult cases like autopilots in planes or sending rockets to space, we just need to make sure that those will be kept as simple as possible. If you knew that switching to autonomus car will decrease road accidents by 90%, but it will always choose lesser harm would you risk driving in it?
DeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
DeleteThis example with autopilot in planes came up to my mind too, but immediately I realized that there is also a pilot or even two to supervise it. I knew a person who had two car accidents. Both the same in damages. In first he had some control and could decrease damages, in the second he could do nothing. The first one didn't influenced him much, but the second made damages in his psychic. The feeling of helplessness was so overwhelming that he couln't recover. Taking power or influence back from people may cause unpredictable consequences.
DeleteInteresting, I always thought that having in mind that I couldn't do anything else was revealing me from compunction, but maybe it's a personal thing.
DeleteYes, I would buy such a car because I think it is the future of transport. Even if there are road accidents caused by self-steering cars, the number of accidents will be much smaller than it is now. The car should choose a smaller number of victims in the event of an accident. However, if we could only move with such cars, they could communicate with each other and in case of danger on the road let other vehicles know about it. I think that if the accident were due to a bug in the code, software company is guilty because of insufficient testing. Such things will be unavoidable, but thanks to them the programmers will be able to repair their mistakes, which allows us to reach a world without accidents on the roads.
ReplyDeleteAll tesla's cars sends data to a cloud and other cars are using it to learn things, so I also belive that we will end up with having something like car network that will let other cars know where are you and what are you doing. It could also lead to reduction of traffic jams, because cars could tell each other to avoid some road, but we will loose more of our privacy then.
DeleteWould you buy a driverless car for yourself?
ReplyDeleteNot really as they will most likely be very expensive. Beside I like to have control over my own car (insert proboscis monkey meme).
What should the computer prioritize when making decisions?
I would expect the AI to prioritize driver's safety since that is exactly what would a real driver do. Why would I buy a machine that will opt to kill me in order to save someone else? Even a small group of people? Really, in such case I would rather drive myself and be responsible for my own actions.
Do you think that common use of autonomous cars will kill some of the job positions like a taxi driver or lorry drivers?
Depends if operating and maintaining autonomous cars will be cheaper than employing lorry or taxi drivers.
Who should we blame when a car crashes because of some bug in a code? A programmer, the company that sold the product or maybe let clients know what is the risk of that and don’t let them blame anyone?
Every case of such unfortunate accidents should be handled individually.
I heard some rumors that for now cost for hardware and software for driver-less cars vary from 70 000$ to 150 000$, but should drop to 5000$ by 2025, so indeed it's pretty much from polish perspective, but still affordable.
DeleteWhat about pedestrians then? Should they avoid going around the streets?
Work of a human is always more expensive in longer period than machine.
I like the idea with handling that individually for each case.
Do pedestrians avoid going around the street right now? Or do they think that in case of unpredicted life threatening situations drivers prioritize their safety?
DeleteThe point is how long that period will be. If the investment return will be after 5 or 6 years than companies might be reluctant to switch to machines.
If the technology would be fully developed and I had a big amount of money, surely I would buy such a car.
ReplyDeleteI do not know what computer should prioritize as well as I do not know what a human should prioritize. It is really a tough question and I think it depends on situation.
I think some day autonomous cars will substitute jobs like taxi drivers and etc. as already machines did it with many other jobs. While technology developes it overcome more and more jobs.
Who should be blamed in case of a bug in a software? It is also a tough question but I think to answer it we shall look at other examples. Who we blame if a casual car crashes because of a failure of its components? Who we blame if some service or product had or caused a failure? It of course depends on situation and I think that lawyers would come up with a just solution.
I think we are always blaming the whole company as a brand, but if it's really rare case, it's not so loud in the media.
DeleteI would not buy a car without a driver, I think people can better assess the situation on the road. The priority of a man is to protect himself, which is why in car crashes passengers die so much, drivers survive crashing, but it's hard for me to answer your question.
ReplyDeleteI think that in the future jobs such as taxi drivers or trucks are threatened by computer workers. Many factors can contribute to mistakes, so it's hard to tell who you can blame for. In one case it may be a programmer error in another
maybe the manufacturer was at fault installing cheaper components.
I wouldn't agree that people are better at driving, after two million miles for a google car, it had 14 collisions which in 13 cases was a mistake of other driver and still it's just development phase not a final product.
DeleteI would not buy a car without a driver, I think people can better assess the situation on the road. The priority of a man is to protect himself, which is why in car crashes passengers die so much, drivers survive crashing, but it's hard for me to answer your question.
ReplyDeleteI think that in the future jobs such as taxi drivers or trucks are threatened by computer workers. Many factors can contribute to mistakes, so it's hard to tell who you can blame for. In one case it may be a programmer error in another
maybe the manufacturer was at fault installing cheaper components.
No, I certainly wouldn’t buy a car like that. I’m a lover of old cars, and driving gives me great pleasure. I can’t imagine a situation that I can’t drive my car. For me, this is a perfect way to de-stress. It's almost obvious that it would be electric cars, which is another thing that reduces the pleasure of driving for me. Never hear the V8 petrol engine again? Horrible! Automotive for me ends in the 90s, so driverless-cars it's something that I hope will not completely replace the drivers.
ReplyDeleteI think that you won't be able to use such cars earlier because of air pollution, already there are some projects that are banning some cars of getting into city centers. It should be possible to use normal cars occasionally for sure and for motor sports, but can't see advantage of having V8 in traffic jam ;)
DeleteI wouldn't buy a self-driving car as a first choice. Maybe for long trips a as secondary car but I enjoy driving so that would take a pleasure from this activity. Computer should surely prioritize human safety, driver and pedestrians as well. Of course self-driving cars will change the employment in some jobs that utilize cars on daily-basis. It would be cheaper and faster to use a self-driving car, so this economical factor would win I think. Who should we blame? Hmm.. that's a hard question. I think the manufacturer, because he is responsible for creating that car. When human is not involved, it's not his guilt. Maybe those cars would have a modes like human-driving, self-driving and that's how Police would distinct if it's human fault or machines.
ReplyDeleteDriving car for a long distance can be really nice, but on normal daily basis I'm not having any pleasure from getting stuck in traffic jams.
DeleteSelf driving cars idea looks promising, but I think human factor must still be involved (the same as for autopilot in airplanes). In particular machine learning algorithms may fail in emergency situation, for instance when an accident occurs on the road, and policeman will control the traffic - the auto car may simply do not understand his commands (the possible solution is to create a special set of commands that are understood by self-driving car and should be used by humans in case of emergency)
ReplyDeleteI think that in case of emergency car should just stop on nearest possible spot. If it's something really unpredictable and happens fast, human won't have enough time to react anyway. In planes you can't stop on a roadside :P Having it said that in that car human must be present and able to drive is taking out possibility to get back to home from party when being drunk and in Poland it could make a huge difference, as we are always fighting with drunk drivers and it doesn't seem to work at all as still on some weekend polish police is catching around three hundred drunk drivers.
DeleteI think that I wouldn't decide to buy driveless car. The main reason is that I don't want to let machine make decisions for me. Technology has developed really fast recently, but it will never be able to fully replace human thinking and intuition. Moreover driving is a pleasure for me. Computers has powerful knowledge and skills, bigger than anyone can achieve, but there always will be lack of human factor. Thats why I think that in case of critical situation computer shuldn't have significant influence on decision. They are smart indeed, but when situation exceed their software possibilities they have problem. The current generation won't let machines have full control over our lives. We can't be sure about that in the near future. The usage of autonomous cars will take over current transport jobs sooner or later. As for your last question, this is a tough one. I believe that this matter is being intensely disputed on a global stage. For me personally, the progammer is just an employee of some company which takes the responsibility of their products quality. Obviously it is important to let their clients know the risk and I am sure it is going to be explicitly highlighted.
ReplyDeleteI would give decisions making to machines if I know that it can do it better than me and to be honest I found my self near to collision just by lack of focus on the road which won't be a case in a computer software. Driving for a long distance can be really nice, but for me staying in a traffic jam is painful and would love to give a computer possibility to drive me to work and me just sleeping on that seat.
DeleteI don't need normal car so I won't be buying the driverless car as well. I would be fine with having car deciding for my decisions and helping me to stay safe on the road. I can be great when driving on the driveway but still think people should be involved. The machine can always make mistakes the same way the we do. So for me driverless cars shouldn't exist without any help from humans.
ReplyDeleteBugs in the code can happen and we cannot completely avoid them but we can try to avoid them as much as possible. If we are trusting the code then it's only the company to blame- sounds fair to me.
Do you use taxi or uber sometimes? If yes, would you get in uber/taxi car without driver?
DeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteDriverless cars seems interesting, still they need a lot of work and tests. As you pointed out decisions they'll make on some point can be very hard to judge. I think that slowly they will become more and more common but that will need some time, for people to accept it and for software driving them to get more mature.
ReplyDeleteTesting is going really well in my opinion google's car already drove two million miles and knowledge of that car can be passed to others, so we will end up with having cars that will act like they drove so many kilometers getting out of factory, when for a human few months after getting driving license still a process of adapting and learning new things.
DeleteIn my opinion it’s too early to think about buying a driverless car. For the nearest future there will be more cons than pros of using car like that. I don’t buy story that this solution will decrease accidents rate more than 90 %. On the other hand, I can imagine myself situation when somebody hacks software and cause serious accident. Moreover, there won’t be anyone who would control this machine and react at the appropriate time. As it was written in some prior comment, pilots use computers during the flight, but they ‘control it’ and at least one pilot is always full focused.
ReplyDeleteYou can hack traffic lights and make a serious accident now without driver less cars. According to polish police reasons of car accidents in Poland are:
Delete31,2% - Speeding
24,2% - Wrong yield the right of way to a car
8% - Wrong yield the right of way to a pedestrian
7% - Wrong takeover
6,1% - Wrong driving on pedestrians crossing
5,8% - Not having enough space between two cars
3,7% - Wrong bypassing
3,1% - Wrong turns
2,6% - Driving of wrong side of the road
1,9% - Wrong driving backward
1,7% - Sleeping/being tired
1,4% - Driving on red light
0,6% - Sudden braking
For me it sounds possible to achieve 90%, as 30% is just about driving slower. In Uber's car that killed a pedestrian was a human driver, but neither car or human had a chance to react, so for me a human presence is not really necessary, as computer will react faster and having possibility to interact with other cars gives much more than human intuition.
I don't trust self driving technology to the extent that I would entrust my life to it.
ReplyDeleteNot today, maybe when each car will communicate freely with each other, sharing its measurements and intentions.
I would need to see the results, that self driving car is a better driver than me or that these cars are better than humans in general.
I think that computers should minimize risk and losses but in the end the one responsible for the accident should be punished - part of a natural selection.
Sure, when car drivers won't be needed, these job positions may not even exist in the future, but it is a far future from now -
I think that specialized infrastructure needs to be done for self driving cars to happen and it will take some time to come.
Responsibility for accidents is a tough topic.
Fact that google car had 14 collisions which 13 of them were caused by other drivers. Is it enough to say that computers are better drivers?
DeleteIn the future when such techologies become more popular, I would buy this kind of car, but I would not like to be one of the first users of it. In the world nothing is perfect, so accidents will happen, but I think that it will be more secure than people who drives. Many drivers are daring and thoughtless. Even if algorithms have bugs, they are still improving.
ReplyDeleteIn my opinion in critical cases, when algorithms have to decide who will suffer, firstly should secure the user. Nobody would like to use the vehicle that is dangerous to them.
There are already few testers that are using those cars so you won't be first for sure :)
DeleteIn my opinion self-driving cars are the only way to solve problem with car accidents and traffic.
ReplyDeleteWe are the ones that make most of errors. As you said - computers are fast, the never rest and have much higrer reacion times than humans.
I beleive that in the future cars will be able to communicate with eachother to prevent accidents or minimalize severity of accidents.
But that will be only possible when all the cars will be autonomus and evhen then they will probably have to make decision on human life.
And I dont know how to solve it. I don't think that blaming prograamer is right way - everybody makes mistakes especially in such a commplicated products.
I think that in such cases companies should take responsibility - they should have insurance and government should supervise comapnies that make selfdriving cars.
I think that there should be some government made test that every self driving car have to pass in order to be sold.
But what decision should car make when it has to decide who to kill - I will leave it to ethics experts.
Yes I completely agree that period when we will have both types of the cars will have so much of accidents anyway, but it's worth trying.
DeleteA couple years back, when asked about having everything in your life recorded and sent to outside companies no one would agree. Now over 20% od Americans own Alexa or other smart assistant in their home. That's literally a set of microphones spread all cover one's house and no one bats an eye.
ReplyDeleteWith this in mind I'm pretty certain that a few years go by and we are not even questioning the autonomous cars. For now though there is some data that speaks for itself. There is going to be less accidents, period. When they occur will they be all over the news? Yes - similar to plane crashes. Not because there will be a massive amount of them, but because those harmed couldn't do anything to change the outcome and that's what scares us. Being surrounded by unknown, being powerless - those are the feelings that we have to learn to live with in an autonomous world.
Yes you are right, in case when uber's car killed a pedestrian there was thousand of news about it and most of senators in US were saying that it needs to be banned. Then police published the video of that accident and I'm sure that even best rally drivers wouldn't be able to avoid that.
Delete1. I think the driverless cars are really good idea. If I had that possibility, I think I would buy this car. The argument about 90% less car accidents decides that I agree with technological progress.
ReplyDelete2. I think computer should prioritize the lesser of two evils. It is actually a hard subject, but accidents occur which leads to non occurrence victims and if that can lower the number of victims, I would like those cars.
3. Actually, it depends. People are a little bit scared of how fast the technological progress goes. At this moment no, but when the driverless cars became more popular I think it is possible.
Should it take into consideration your life position like for example it should kill homeless instead of university lecturer?
Delete