Following the assassination of Iranian military commander Qasem Soleimani, killed in a US airstrike at Baghdad airport on Friday unrest has once again hit the middle east, which has also been known, as a pretty turbulent region. Qasem Soleimani was actually one of Iran's most powerful men and a highly controversial figure. He was head of the Revolutionary Guards' Quds Force, an elite unit that handles Iran's overseas operations -- and one deemed to be a foreign terrorist organization by the US.
His corpse has already been returned to Iran and the funeral procession has begun on Saturday, marking the beginning of days of mourning. The middle east has been in conflict for decades. The ruling dictators have failed. The liberal democracies in the region have been unsuccessful. The Iranian-American relationship has been bad ever since the Islamic revolution took place in 1978. Open conflict has been anticipated a couple of times already, but so far none has actually started.
Political commentators from all parts of the world are now speculating, that this conflict might escalate very soon, into a bigger one. Donald Trump has already mentioned aiming 52 targets within Iran, which could be bombed at any time. Iran has also spoken about revenge and its plans to retaliate. Possibly Iran could conduct cyber attacks on European or American targets.
Even though Iran cannot fact the he U.S. military directly, there are many scenarios. Like attacking U.S. military targets in the region, supporting proxy
forces fighting the and its allies across the Middle East, aand perhaps most conceivable, cyberattacks on U.S. cities and infrastructure.
1. Do you think the III world war will really break out ?
2. Do you think the US envolment in the different parts of the world is legitimate?
3. Which consequences will the escalation of the current conflict could have ? Like rising oil prices .etc.?
I don’t like such topics the same as religion and politic. I don’t think that the III world war may become true because in my opinion nowadays there is no point for war at all. There are other ways that we have developed over many years. I don’t want to judge USA involvement but to be honest I understand Trump and agree with him. The biggest drawback of his all actions is that each country in the world is suffering. For example, as it’s mentioned in the article – oil prices and other goods will be more expensive.
ReplyDeleteUnfortunately, I do not follow this matter on a regular basis, which is why I cannot say too much.
Delete1. I hope not, although sometimes I think if it would be better for someone to do order in the Middle East, because there are non-stop problems in particular related to religion. They are so problematic.
2. I would have to trace the history of US involvement in war so that I can comment :)
3. Here, I don't really know how Iran will affect the raw materials for the rest of the world.
I am sorry, but this type of topics is not my strong point. I have a friend who loves hisotry, war and politics and I assume he would write a giant comment here :)
It is always difficult to predict if such an escallation of violence will escallate and turn into a proper armed conflict in the region, or eventually a more global issue. Following yesterday's news - Iran's confession to shooting down the passenger plane by mistake and the way the officials have started handling the situation - I do believe that the Iranian side will do their best to prevent the escallation of the conflict. The recent attack on american bases in Iraq seemed like an obligatory act of retaliation, done very hesitantly and in a deliberate way. The other issue the Iranian government will have to deal with is the civil unrest triggered by the fatal air disaster; people are demanding the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei to step down following recent events.
ReplyDeleteAmerican government has been long known for starting armed conflicts across the globe, so the escalation of this already fragile relationship with the Iranian government doesn't seem to be a big surprise. I'm not a specialist in foreign, middle-eastern politics but I do believe that the current situation might affect the price o petrol, prompt an emabargo against the Iranian industry and cause Iran to return to fulfilling its nuclear ambitions.
In my humble opinion discussing similar issues resembles tea-leaf reading. Like most people, I don't know the future and it's extremely hard to predict what's going to happen in upcoming months. US foreign policy is indeed quite expansive, but it is difficult for me to judge whether this is justified. Increased gasoline price is probably one of the consequences that an average citizen will quickly realize, but for sure not the only one. There are many goods imported to Europe from the East and they will also probably cost more.
ReplyDeleteAs the most people here or on the world I couldn't agree that answer for your your first question is "I don't know" and "I hope not", but it's the terrifying fact that there is a topic about the Word War III on the Wikipedia...
ReplyDeleteI think that if Word War III would happens it can be without violence and weapons, it would be cyberwar which can destroy countries from inside.
The only thing that I can say about it is just "I really hope not", but currently there are a lot of active conflicts but they don't have such direct impact on us. So maybe there's already WWIII but we just don't call it that way. I think that in most cases they are just taking care of their business and it's under cover of "democracy".
ReplyDeleteWhat consequences? Of course prices will reach high, maybe we will get some products off market and it might cause bigger immigration problems due to refugees.
I'm not an expert, but I think that WW3 will not likely to happen, because there be no winner and there will be many, many victims. Also, I think that war does not pay off for anyone. I don't want to judge USA actions abroad the country, because often it is just a business between countries which become a problem after some years. I think that oil price rising will be the first consequence of escalation. Another thing is that this is another situation which make people feel afraid about tomorrow every day.
ReplyDeleteI don’t think so. There are too many protect systems and defenders like NATO secure system or something like that. It’s not fair that USA has so much money. If Poland has we will be so powerful ;) joke. They shouldn’t be so aggressive in politics and military stuff. Embargo or export-import block, also whole economy fields will be suffering.
ReplyDeleteHonestly, I have no idea. It's a 50-50 chance, it will break out or not :) I think that most of us have too little knowledge to be able to reasonably predict if any war will break out. I think that US involvement is just as legitimate as Russia's involvement in other parts of the world. Unfortunately, there is not much we can do about it. In my humble opinion, guessing now what the consequences of this conflict might be does not make much sense. It all depends on what will happen in the future. Anything related to oil is definitely one of the most likely options, because of commonly known reasons.
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